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Trends: Projections

Projections

Last updated 06-06-2019

Researchers have used models to predict obesity progression among Australian adults. A recent Australian study predicts that by 2025, healthy weight will decline and obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase.

Key Evidence

01

36.4% of women will be obese by 2025, according to projections

02

11.2% of men will be severely obese by 2025, according to projections

03

Among men of low socioeconomic position born in 1970, 24.6% will be severely obese at age 60

Obesity projections for Australian women to 2025

Hayes AJ, Lung TWC, Bauman A, and Howard K. Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future. International Journal of Obesity, 2016; 41:178.

Note: Obesity category is inclusive of severe obesity. Population data was incorporated into the models up to 2014.

Healthy/underweight (%) Overweight BMI>25 (%) Obesity BMI>30 (%) Severe obesity BMI>35 (%)

Rates of healthy weight and underweight have declined among Australian women since 1995 and overweight has remained steady, while obesity and severe obesity have increased. These trends are predicted to continue.

Obesity projections for Australian men to 2025

Hayes AJ, Lung TWC, Bauman A, and Howard K. Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future. International Journal of Obesity, 2016; 41:178.

Note: Obesity category is inclusive of severe obesity. Population data was incorporated into the models up to 2014.

Healthy/underweight (%) Overweight BMI>25 (%) Obesity BMI>30 (%) Severe obesity BMI>35 (%)

Rates of healthy weight, underweight and overweight have declined among Australian men since 1995, while obesity and severe obesity have increased. These trends are predicted to continue.

Obesity outcomes by birth cohort, gender and socioeconomic position at age 60

Modelling for Australians across four birth cohorts (born 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970) shows that socioeconomic inequality in obesity is widening. Among men there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort, but for the 1970 cohort there was an 11% difference in obesity prevalence between Australians of low socioeconomic position and those with a high socioeconomic position.

Men

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP

Females

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP