Back to Trends

Trends: Projections

Obesity projections

Last updated 28-11-2023

Researchers have used models to predict obesity progression in coming decades. World Obesity predicts that by 2035, 47% of Australian adults will be living with obesity.

Key Evidence

01

Adult obesity prevalence in Australia is predicted to increase to 47% by 2035

02

Obesity prevalence is predicted to increase by more than 50% globally among men and women by 2035

03

By 2035, World Obesity predicts that 383 million children globally will be living with obesity

Projections of global obesity among adults, up to 2035

The number of adults (aged 20+) living with obesity is predicted to increase by more than 50% globally, from 813 million in 2020 to 1.532 billion in 2035, according to projections by the World Obesity Federation.1 The report predicts that all world regions will see increases in obesity prevalence among both men and women. Prevalence is expected to more than double among men and women in the South East Asian region (from a lower starting level), and among men in the Western Pacific region.

Predicted obesity prevalence among men by world region, 2020-2035

World Obesity. World Obesity Atlas 2023.

African (Sub-Saharan) The Americas (North, Central & South America) Eastern Mediterranean (North Africa & Middle East) European South-East Asian Western Pacific

Predicted obesity prevalence among women by world region, 2020-2035

World Obesity. World Obesity Atlas 2023.

African (Sub-Saharan) The Americas (North, Central & South America) Eastern Mediterranean (North Africa & Middle East) European South-East Asian Western Pacific

Projections of global obesity among children and adolescents, up to 2035

The global number of children and adolescents (aged 5-19 years) with obesity is predicted to rise to 383 million by 2035, according to projections by the World Obesity Federation. Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents is predicted to rise in all regions of the world, with the steepest rises predicted for girls and boys the Western Pacific region, followed by the Americas and the Eastern Mediterranean.2

Predicted obesity prevalence among boys by world region, 2020-2035

World Obesity. World Obesity Atlas 2023.

African (Sub-Saharan) The Americas (North, Central & South America) Eastern Mediterranean (North Africa & Middle East) European South-East Asian Western Pacific

Predicted obesity prevalence among girls by world region, 2020-2035

World Obesity. World Obesity Atlas 2023.

African (Sub-Saharan) The Americas (North, Central & South America) Eastern Mediterranean (North Africa & Middle East) European South-East Asian Western Pacific

Projections of obesity and its impact in Australia up to 2035

The 2023 World Obesity Atlas projects that by 2035, 47% of all Australian adults will be living with obesity, representing a 2.2% annual increase in obesity rates between 2020 and 2035. Among children the projected increase is 2.6% annually. It is estimated that this will increase the economic impact of obesity to be equivalent to 2.5% of GDP by 2035.1

Obesity outcomes by birth cohort, gender and socioeconomic position at age 60

Modelling for Australians across four birth cohorts (born 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970) shows that socioeconomic inequality in obesity is widening. Among men there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort, but for the 1970 cohort there was an 11% difference in obesity prevalence between Australians of low socioeconomic position and those with a high socioeconomic position.3

Men

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP

Women

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP

Content for this page was written by Melanie Nichols, Deakin University and reviewed by Kathryn Backholer and Gary Sacks, Co-Directors at the Global Centre for Preventive Health and Nutrition at Deakin University. For more information about the approach to content on the site please see About | Obesity Evidence Hub.

References

1. World Obesity Federation. World Obesity Atlas 2023. 2023; Available from: https://data.worldobesity.org/publications/?cat=19.
2. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD RisC). Body Mass Index: Evolution of BMI over time. 2017 July 2023]; Available from: https://ncdrisc.org/obesity-prevalence-map-ado.html.
3. Hayes AJ, Lung TWC, Bauman A, and Howard K. Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future. International Journal Of Obesity, 2016; 41:178.